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Introduction to Finance & Economics - Mar 2010

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Post initial response to each by Tuesday 1200 GMT and at least 2 responses to other students postings by Thursday 1200 GMT. Dont forget to cite references.

Discussion questions:

1) Why do countries have currencies with different values to each other?
 2) How does a nation gain and / or  lose when the value of their currency fluctuates?
3) How can  government  actions (central banks) affect the value of their currency and why do they do so?
4) How does a currency trader make and lose money?.

Dennis Riedel's picture
Dennis Riedel
Sat, 2010-03-13 15:41

1) Why do countries have currencies with different values to each other?
The value of a countries currency depends on the perception of its political and economic stability. A country with an unstable political system and a weak economy (measured by GDP) will look unsecure for investment in comparison to a country with responsible and stable politics and a strong economy. Therefore its currency is valued less in comparison.

Sources:
Wikipedia "Determinants of FX rates" - "http://bit.ly/cwMs62

2) How does a nation gain and / or lose when the value of their currency fluctuates?
The nation, seen in its consumers and industry, gain when they can import foreign goods from abroad because the exporters currency is less valuable in comparison to their own. Having the chance to buy a jeans in the United States of America for 60 USD in comparison to 60 EURO at the local market, I can save 16,40 EUROS today (13.03.2010). Importing that jeans to the local market hurts it, when I am still able to sell it below 60 EUROS. The domestic jeans industry is negatively affected. Cheap currencies allow also for cheap travel. It is cheaper to make holidays abroad than in the own country.

Question: Does cheap labor in the export country add to the effect of cheap products or is this already summed up in the exchange rate?

Sources:
"How Does Forex Currency Trading Work?" - http://bit.ly/ai8C7r
"FOREX : What Is It And How Does It Work?" - http://bit.ly/dcabr4

3) How can government actions (central banks) affect the value of their currency and why do they do so?
By buying and selling government bonds and/or securities, therefore controlling money supplies.
Help out the local consumer and/or local industry to buy/sell goods on the local market. They also avoid inflation controlling the amount of money in the market.
They can also strengthen a foreign currency in comparison to their own by buying securities from the foreign currencies' central bank. This could be useful to do in countries importing goods from the local market.

Sources:
"What Are Central Banks?" - http://bit.ly/bRaSF3

4) How does a currency trader make and lose money?
He speculates on the value of one currency in comparison to a base currency, usually the USD.
When on Monday 1 EURO buys 1.50 USD and on Friday, 1 EURO buys 1.75 USD, imagining he bought 150 USD for 100 EURO, he has lost on his investment into USD because the value of USD decreased. He actually lost around 15 EURO.

Sources:
"How Does Forex Currency Trading Work?" -http://bit.ly/bO7UQW

Additional reading:

Wikipedia "Foreign exchange market" - http://bit.ly/blOi0u
Wikipedia "Central Bank" - http://bit.ly/dBqDnH
"Brief History of FOREX Trading" - http://bit.ly/dkJZFo

Georgi Ivanov's picture
Georgi Ivanov
Thu, 2010-03-18 20:53

I'm interested in the prediction capabilities of forex trader. It seems that he uses patterns in movement of currencies value and information. Do you think it is at all possible to predict major market shift because i don't except in obvious political turmoil.

Guy Taylor's picture
Guy Taylor
Mon, 2010-03-15 16:53

Yipes, I feel a little out of my depth. Here goes:

1) Why do countries have currencies with different values to each other?

* Currency acts as a formally accepted measure of value, as currency moved away from shards of pottery and local currency to a centralised policy, as monarchies grabbed control of their currencies, these localised systems created financial islands with area's taking control of their own local economies. [1] As the world expanded and further exchange with remote countries was required, a translation layer was needed in order to exchange in equal worth. Initially this was based on a gold standard, which eventually fell away over time, so now currencies are measured against relative to each other, rather than relative worth to a fixed benchmark.

[1] Life Inc. - Douglas Rushkoff
2) How does a nation gain and / or lose when the value of their currency fluctuates?

Currency fluctuations effect a nation two-fold: By affected the relative worth of products or services offered by foreign suppliers, and effect the rate at which they borrow at.

3) How can government actions (central banks) affect the value of their currency and why do they do so?

Central banks can increase or decrease the amount of money in a system by releasing, or suppressing the release of the amount of money in the system. Creating scarcity as appropriate.

4) How does a currency trader make and lose money?

Currency traders trade on the potential increase or decrease of values around currencies on the forex market. Betting on information that the have gathered to establish a currencies worth to be more or less in the present than it will be in the future.

Jesus Zavala's picture
Jesus Zavala
Mon, 2010-03-15 21:13

1) Why do countries have currencies with different values to each other?
Because of their monetary policy, this depends of the exchange rate regime, the way a country manages its currency in respect to foreign currencies and the foreign exchange market.

2) How does a nation gain and / or lose when the value of their currency fluctuates?
A nation gain or lose by the exchange of currencies. Must countries use a system of managed floating exchange rates, supply and demand factor set the exchange rates most of the time, as international banks, investors, tourists, consumers, and multinational companies buy and sell currencies and goods.

3) How can government actions (central banks) affect the value of their currency and why do they do so?
In concordance to answer 2) the demand for a particular currency is determined by many factors including a country´s inflation, interest rates, political and economic outlook, monetary policies and speculation. Governments and specifically central banks (who regularly are independents) typically only intervene to prevent massive fluctuations in exchange rates and control some of the factors previously mentioned.

4) How does a currency trader make and lose money?
A trader makes or loses money in the foreign exchange market (Forex) where just as with the stock prices; the exchange rate between currencies is constantly changing and reacting to market conditions. Forex traders are always trying to anticipate the movement of exchange rates and capitalize upon these predictions. Forex investors can profit whenever they correctly predict moves in the exchange rates; the basic premise of any Forex investment is to purchase one currency while simultaneously selling another, historical data (technical analysis), economic and political data are used as strategy in the trade.

References
a) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency#Control_and_production
b) http://html.rincondelvago.com/mercado-monetario.html (in Spanish)
c) http://www.economist.com/research/economics/
d) http://www.investorguide.com/igu-article-1149-investing-basics-currency-...

Dennis Riedel's picture
Dennis Riedel
Tue, 2010-03-16 22:02

Reply to Jesus Zavala, Question 1:

I did not understand the term "exchange rate regime", so I looked it up: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange_rate_regime

Do I understand it right, that trading currencies does not make a lot of sense in case of "fixed" as the exchange rate regime? In contrast to the stock market, is it the case that FOREX concentrates itself mainly on "top" currencies, like the USD, EUR, CHF, GBP, ... ?

Mateo  Garcia's picture
Mateo Garcia
Wed, 2010-03-17 21:11

From what I have read you seem to be correct regarding FOREX's including only "top" currencies. I can understand why this is done, but what I do not understand is how this is handled, specially towards the bottom part of the list, do different country's currencies fight for these spots? In other words, is this a dynamic list of currencies? or just a preselected set?

Jesus Zavala's picture
Jesus Zavala
Fri, 2010-03-19 01:48

In reply to Dennis Riedel question:

I think that maybe doesn´t have a lot of sense in the fixed case, but depends of his reserves and the offer/demand of the “principal” currency and the socioeconomic ambient of the country that decide to adopt that rate exchange.

I found a “curious” case: the Cuban peso.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_peso

I think that the Forex market concentrates mainly “top” currencies by the volume that they represent in the international commerce transactions and the policies of their respective countries. In the past they obeyed to international agreements.

http://www.economist.com/research/Economics/alphabetic.cfm?term=exchange...

Some examples of the situations and consequences of the fixed case:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_board

Jesus Zavala's picture
Jesus Zavala
Fri, 2010-03-19 01:55

In reply to Dennis Riedel question:

I think that maybe doesn´t have a lot of sense in the fixed case, but depends of his reserves and the offer/demand of the “principal” currency and the socioeconomic ambient of the country that decide to adopt that rate exchange.

I found a “curious” case: the Cuban peso.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_peso

I think that the Forex market concentrates mainly “top” currencies by the volume that they represent in the international commerce transactions and the policies of their respective countries. In the past they obeyed to international agreements.

http://www.economist.com/research/Economics/alphabetic.cfm?term=exchange...

Some examples of the situations and consequences of the fixed case:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_board

Curtis Frantz's picture
Curtis Frantz
Mon, 2010-03-15 22:01

Discussion questions:

1) Why do countries have currencies with different values to each other?
2) How does a nation gain and / or lose when the value of their currency fluctuates?
3) How can government actions (central banks) affect the value of their currency and why do they do so?
4) How does a currency trader make and lose money?

1. Sovereign nations have certain rights, one of which is usually to mint its own currency. For many countries, currency originally was minted with a certain amount of gold or silver to back it up, meaning that the dollar represented an amount of gold in the national treasury. In America, eventually there was a breakdown in the gold-standard. The value of a dollar stopped representing a certain amount of gold, but was rather dependant upon the health of the national economy. The better the economy, the more the dollar could buy. National currencies are different from each other because they're no long based on the same, constantly valued commodity. They're based on the economic status of the minting nation and is a good measure of how each nation's economy is faring relative to other countries'.

2. The nation whose currency drops in value relative to ther currencies loses a kind of credibility, a marketability. It's a sign that their economy is doing less well, meaning there's a higher risk in losing money when dealing with that country. Loans to that country would probably end up with higher interest rates and other nations would probably put more thought into investing into the "fallen" nation. All of these things reverse when the value of a nation's currency rises. There are more investers, loans are less of risk, the rising nation has more fluidity with its neighbors.

3. National governments control the minting of the currency. The more of any one kind of currency, the lower the value of any individual sample of that currency. This is inflation. The more money printed/minted, the less value the money has on an individual basis. In America, central, government banks can designate what kind of percentage banks are supposed to have in reserve of any money that's saved with them. Meaning the higher percentage, the more of anyone's particular savings they actually have to have available. The lower the rate, the less of a person's savings they actually need to have access to at any one time. This can control how much money can actually be on the market at once, creating a kind of interactive inflation.

4. A currency trader, if keeping an eye on the values of currencies relative to each other, such as the Euro and the American Dollar, can buy an amount of Euros with a starting amount of dollars. Then, if the Euro increases in value relative to the dollar, the trader can then exchange his euros back for dollars, resulting in more dollars. Then, if they market continues to favor the trader and the Euro then depreciates relative to the dollar, he can then spend his dollars by exhanging them back for Euros, with more dollars than he had at the beginning and potentially more Euros than he had the first time he bought some. And so the pattern continues, the trader able to make money by playing depreciating currencies against each other. The risk comes when a currency depreciates when he wanted it to appreciate, or the other way around. When the market does the opposite of what would let him run a profit, the trader loses money.

Dennis Riedel's picture
Dennis Riedel
Tue, 2010-03-16 22:09

Reply to Curtis Frantz, Question 1:

I was curious about "sovereign nations" and their rights. First, because I ask myself, who has to acknowledge their sovereignity and then allows them to mint their own currency. I actually understand that they could produce their own currency, to be used within their borders to trade, but that this currency would have no value in comparison to other currencies.

I was curious about the non-sovereing states on Earth:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states#Other_states

Dennis Riedel's picture
Dennis Riedel
Tue, 2010-03-16 22:19

Additionally I would like to raise the question about the FOREX: what happens when a lot of people sell one currency. Does it have a negative effect on the currency´s value?

As I understand this from the stock market, when a lot of people sell their stocks of a particular company, that is normally a bad sign. Is there a similar effect on EUR and USD, for example?

Let´s say the quote for EUR:USD is 1:1.5 and for 100 EUR I buy 150 USD. Two days later the quote is 1:1.1, the USD got stronger against the EUR and I change them back to EUR, I get around 136 EUR. If a lot of people do this, to earn on their speculation, does this have an effect on the quote, say, the day after it rose to 1:1.3, for example?

Mateo  Garcia's picture
Mateo Garcia
Wed, 2010-03-17 21:17

As an expansion Mr. Ridel's last question,does the central bank then control what percentage of their currency can be traded? I would like to think that currency inclusion in FOREX is highly regulated in an efford to prevent large international control of a nation's financial assets. I'll look further into this and post later tonight.

vikram chintalapati's picture
vikram chintalapati
Thu, 2010-03-18 18:37

I am guessing it would be a self fulfilling circle; in the sense that most speculation would be dependent on real world issues and events, for example, elections, disasters etc, which would actually have a major effect on the currency markets anyway.

Meanwhile, speculation would cause minor fluctuations, with most people's transactions cancelling each other out.
Can anyone confirm this?

Curtis Frantz's picture
Curtis Frantz
Thu, 2010-03-18 18:20

Well, my understanding of sovereignty as it happens in the world today is this: the country acknowledges itself as a sovereign power, taking the authority to dispense law and mint money within their own borders. Outside their borders, most nations need the recognition of larger, more established nations, recognition of their "independence" for them to be able to interact with the rest of the world. If enough of the right "key players" recognize a nations independence, then that country is generally accepted by the world at large, and can then be considered fully sovereign.

Mateo  Garcia's picture
Mateo Garcia
Mon, 2010-03-15 22:10

I hope this makes sense:

1) Why do countries have currencies with different values to each other?
The currency for individual countries is dependant not only on interest rates, economic health, foreign trade, governmental factors, but most importantly on speculation. Each of the afordmentioned currency dependancies are intertwined by both the local(national) and foreign (international) stance of the Nation at hand. While most countries have some type of material backing to their currency and this actual physical amount/value may fluctuate, the real strength of a national currency is on the perception of the country's stability as determined by the different influences previously mentioned. For instance, a nation at war might be more unstable than one which is devoting their assets to the internal development due to the large amount of capital which must be invested in military and other war related expenses.

External Source:
Lowery, adrian. thisismoney"What makes currencies strong or weak?" http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/markets/article.html?in_article_id=429456&i...

2) How does a nation gain and / or lose when the value of their currency fluctuates?
When a nation's currency gains or looses value, this nation is directly affected in its ability to liquify its assets and to borrow from other nations. As the value of a nation's currency depreciates, this nation's purchasing power is deterred. Not only is the purchasing power lowered, but lenders will be less likely to want to grant loans since lower currency value is associated with more instability. For this very reason their interest rates will increase in an effort to guarantee returns in their investment.

3) How can government actions (central banks) affect the value of their currency and why do they do so?
Central banks can affect the value of their currency through the control they hold on the interest rates, policy, gold/raw reserves, and general regulation. Since they generally are incharge of the release of money into the market and controlling the interest rates, they have a strong influence on the economic stability of a nation.

External Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_bank

4) How does a currency trader make and lose money?.
Similar to a stock trader, a currency trader uses "knowledge" of diferent stabilities in an effort to make a profit. By using predictive ideals of how a market will react to different global or national circumstances, a money trader will take educated gambles by purchasing more of a certain currency and/or selling of others.

I would like to know how widely practiced is the backing of currency through the use of raw materials, and how central banks determine their investment in these.

Curtis Frantz's picture
Curtis Frantz
Thu, 2010-03-18 18:24

I really appreciated the importance you put on speculation. We like to think that so many of our decisions are rationally influenced by the financial and political stability of other nations and how productive they are and so on and so forth, but rarely do we acknowledge that our decisions really comes from our perceptions, what we believe about a nations stability. Speculation, especially in the world of exchange, such as stock exchange or the FOREX, is just as powerful, if not a more powerful, force than nearly anything else involved.

vikram chintalapati's picture
vikram chintalapati
Tue, 2010-03-16 00:05

1.A "Country" can be defined as an geographical region that has, over a period of time, come to share some sort of social cohesion, and along with it, a mechanism for commerce, with an accepted representation of value, i.e., a currency.Prior to modern international trade, these local currencies would have sufficed;however, in today's globalized economy there is a need for rapid exchange of money between businesses from different countries.Since money is required for both intra nation and inter nation trade, we need multiple currencies with values depending on the economies they represent.

2.Currency Appreciation:
Advantages:
(a)Importing goods becomes cheaper, benefitting consumers.
(b)Increased inflow of foreign currency leading to better foreign reserves.
Disadvantages:
(a)Exported goods are more expensive in foreign markets, leading to increased competition.

Currency Depreciation
Advantages:
(a)Exported goods are cheaper in foreign markets.
Disadvantages:
(a)Imported goods are more expensive.
(b)Foreign reserves are depleted.

apart from this, rise and fall in a currency's value also effects foreign investments in an economy.
extrapolated from: http://www.rediff.com/money/2004/mar/31perfin.htm

3.Central Banks can cause the value of their currency to appreciate or depreciate by varying the amount of money available to the public, and by participating on the international currency markets.
For example, China is widely reckoned to undervalue the yuan, in order to make it more attractive to outsource manufacturing activities to China, and also give Chinese imports an unfair price advantage.

http://articles.sfgate.com/2009-02-15/opinion/17187932_1_us-china-trade-...
http://articles.sfgate.com/2009-02-15/opinion/17187721_1_china-s-central...

4.A currency trader makes or loses money based on the positions he takes regarding various currencies.He buys a currency that he expects will appreciate, and sells currencies that he thinks will depreciate.

Georgi Ivanov's picture
Georgi Ivanov
Wed, 2010-03-17 21:29

1) Why countries have currencies with different value to each other?
With the Breeton-Woods summit the gold standard for the value of currencies was removed. After that the value of currencies was determined by economic performance with main indicator GNP or the turnover of goods and services. Since different countries have different economic performance hence and different value of the currency.

2) How does a nation gains and/or lose when the value of their currency fluctuates?
Depreciated currency means that the nation gains from cheaper exports but the inflation rises and imports are expensive.
Overvalued currency means expensive export but also means that the currency is more often used in transactions other than with nation.

3) How can government actions (central banks) affect the value of their currency and why do they do so?
Central Banks can affect the value of the currency with a reserve of stable currencies (don't know its name in English) With intervention by the currency reserve by buying or selling domestic currency its value is changed. Also political decisions can affect the value of a currency. They can boost or decline foreign investment hence the dealings with the currency increase or decrease.

4) How does a currency trader make and lose money?
Currency trader makes money by exploiting fluctuations of the comparative value between two currencies.

Georgi Ivanov's picture
Georgi Ivanov
Wed, 2010-03-17 21:31

1) Why countries have currencies with different value to each other?
With the Breeton-Woods summit the gold standard for the value of currencies was removed. After that the value of currencies was determined by economic performance with main indicator GNP or the turnover of goods and services. Since different countries have different economic performance hence and different value of the currency.

2) How does a nation gains and/or lose when the value of their currency fluctuates?
Depreciated currency means that the nation gains from cheaper exports but the inflation rises and imports are expensive.
Overvalued currency means expensive export but also means that the currency is more often used in transactions other than with nation.

3) How can government actions (central banks) affect the value of their currency and why do they do so?
Central Banks can affect the value of the currency with a reserve of stable currencies (don't know its name in English) With intervention by the currency reserve by buying or selling domestic currency its value is changed. Also political decisions can affect the value of a currency. They can boost or decline foreign investment hence the dealings with the currency increase or decrease.

4) How does a currency trader make and lose money?
Currency trader makes money by exploiting fluctuations of the comparative value between two currencies.

vikram chintalapati's picture
vikram chintalapati
Thu, 2010-03-18 18:40

@Dennis Riedel

I am guessing it would be a self fulfilling circle; in the sense that most speculation would be dependent on real world issues and events, for example, elections, disasters etc, which would actually have a major effect on the currency markets anyway.

Jesus Zavala's picture
Jesus Zavala
Fri, 2010-03-19 01:50

In reply to Dennis Riedel question:

I think that maybe doesn´t have a lot of sense in the fixed case, but depends of his reserves and the offer/demand of the “principal” currency and the socioeconomic ambient of the country that decide to adopt that rate exchange.

I found a “curious” case: the Cuban peso.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_peso

I think that the Forex market concentrates mainly “top” currencies by the volume that they represent in the international commerce transactions and the policies of their respective countries. In the past they obeyed to international agreements.

http://www.economist.com/research/Economics/alphabetic.cfm?term=exchange...

Some examples of the situations and consequences of the fixed case:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_board

Jesus Zavala's picture
Jesus Zavala
Fri, 2010-03-19 02:16

In reply to Dennis Riedel question:

I think that maybe doesn´t have a lot of sense in the fixed case, but depends of his reserves and the offer/demand of the “principal” currency and the socioeconomic ambient of the country that decide to adopt that rate exchange.

I found a “curious” case: the Cuban peso.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_peso

I think that the Forex market concentrates mainly “top” currencies by the volume that they represent in the international commerce transactions and the policies of their respective countries. In the past they obeyed to international agreements.

http://www.economist.com/research/Economics/alphabetic.cfm?term=exchange...

Some examples of the situations and consequences of the fixed case:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_board

Jesus Zavala's picture
Jesus Zavala
Fri, 2010-03-19 02:51

In reply to Dennis Riedel question:

I think that maybe doesn´t have a lot of sense in the fixed case, but depends of his reserves and the offer/demand of the “principal” currency and the socioeconomic ambient of the country that decide to adopt that rate exchange.

I found a “curious” case: the Cuban peso.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_peso

I think that the Forex market concentrates mainly “top” currencies by the volume that they represent in the international commerce transactions and the policies of their respective countries. In the past they obeyed to international agreements.

http://www.economist.com/research/Economics/alphabetic.cfm?term=exchange...

Some examples of the situations and consequences of the fixed case:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_board

Jesus Zavala's picture
Jesus Zavala
Fri, 2010-03-19 05:21

In reply to Dennis Riedel question:

I think that maybe doesn´t have a lot of sense in the fixed case, but depends of his reserves and the offer/demand of the “principal” currency and the socioeconomic ambient of the country that decide to adopt that rate exchange.

I found a “curious” case: the Cuban peso.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_peso

I think that the Forex market concentrates mainly “top” currencies by the volume that they represent in the international commerce transactions and the policies of their respective countries. In the past they obeyed to international agreements.

http://www.economist.com/research/Economics/alphabetic.cfm?term=exchange...

Some examples of the situations and consequences of the fixed case:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_board